Probability Discussion

Probablity Discussion

Today, we are going to talk about probablity. Is probablity that reliable? Most people are inclined to 90% or 99%. However, there is scary power of 1%. I mean the one 1% bad luck can destory completely. You are not going to be reliable to probablity. You are going to be reliable to numbers than percentages. You will pay attentions to the number of people who passed over and the number of capitals accepted. As well, the number of investors should be considered. You also need to pay attentions to the number of sales. Let’s figure out with me why we can not trust probablity.

First, probablity varies according to different people. Suppose that there are twenty balls in one box. You are going to get one ball which contains a secret note. Let’s suppose that there are 15 balls containing the secret notes. What is the probablity? It is going to be 15/20 and will be 75%. This is pretty high, right? Not many people will mix the balls and pick up one ball because they think they can get the ball, containing the secret notes easily. In this case, the probablity is not 15/20 because the person did not mix the balls. So, the probably could be 10/20 or 14/17 or even worse 2/10. This happens because the person is not considering the ball out of the entire number. Instead, the balls at the top. Only the person mix the balls and choose one ball, and it can be considered as a probablity 15/20.

Second, there is power of 1%. Get the 1% lottery ticket is hard to be achieved; however, get the 1% negative one is highly possible. I will give you one funny illustration. You probably think you get one 1% punishment ticket for your car if you are unlucky. This is not true. Your possiblity to get a penalty ticket is the number of officers / the entire human beings. This means that bad 1% is more possible than good 1%.

There is another power of bad 1%. I’ll go with 1/100 this time. See what I’m doing. 10/1000 to 100/10000 to 1000/10000… What is the probablity? 1%. Those numbers are all 1%. What do you think? Your bad luck keep increasing right? For that reason, I don’t believe in probablity much.

Then how to make bad luck 0% and good luck 100%? Let’s use y = 1/x function now. 1 means 1% and x is the amount of your positive information. If you use the limit, y becomes zero if you have infinite positive information. The graph will be something like this 0 = 1/∞. If you know better, you can invest better. For example, there are twenty balls in a box; there are three balls containg secret notes. If you have knowledge that some balls do not have secret notes, you will have a better chance to get the ball, containing a secret note. You are not making a decision with probablity. You are making a decision with your knowledge.

Let’s take look at 100% magic. The 100% will be something like y = x100/100. This will be automatically y = x. Since this graph always goes up, y = x means that the y value is always 100%. X might be a period or a piece of positive information. You integrate the function. It will be something like y = square x * (½). The area of the function is the amount of the entire capital of one company. The capital always goes up but declines as well if you the market is seriously down. The point is that you should consider the entire capital of one company than percentages or prosperity graphics.

In conclusion, if you know the locations of balls containing no secret, you can definitely get the ball, containing secret notes. As I said before, I’m a mathematician and not a financial adviser. One day, I will learn finance and be a good friend with you. Thanks for reading. Remember that lottery is not a gamble. It works with your tricks and plentiful researches. God bless !!!


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